Fahrenheit 451 Part 3 Literary Terms
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Currently, El Niño events and 2°C of global warming are expected to co-occur on average every 2–3 years in the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Thuiller et al., 2016)1203. At higher global temperatures, the surface sea temperature anomalies will increase in the tropics and subtropics and lead to more frequent and more intense heatwaves, these being linked to agricultural damages (Liu et al., 2018)1204. Apart from the direct impacts, the increased droughts will indirectly affect food production by altering the crop phenology and other ecosystem productivity (e.g., forests) by warming, which in turn may place negative socioeconomic consequences on the lives of vulnerable communities (e.g., refugees) (Barnosky, et al., 2012)1205. Under 1.5°C global warming and more intense heatwaves every 2–3 years, the climate resilience is higher in the tropical and subtropical Andes, Western USA, Central Mid-West Eurasia, East Asia and North Africa, as compared to West Africa, Southeast Asia and Amazonia (Pretis et al., 2018)1206. Particularly in the Central Sub-Saharan Africa (CSA), Barbosa et al. (2018)1207 suggested that the water-limited upper parts of the western Sahel will experience crop yield losses of up to 30%, which are projected to increase considerably from 10 to 30% under 2°C and up to nearly 50% at 3°C (most likely scarce water resources). This indicates that the projected crop yield losses at 3°C might be larger than in the more well-established 3.2°C projections by Giannakis et al. (2013)1208 for high-latitude regions.
El Niño events have been known to trigger extreme rainfall in parts of the tropical Pacific. The increased rainfall will provide a greater draw on atmospheric moisture from the ocean. The IPCC (2018)1209 suggests that larger impacts are already observed under a 1.5°C global warming level due to sea-surface temperature effects on the evaporation rates in the tropical Pacific. d2c66b5586